Support and Resistance

Here 2 trades i made yesterday in the SP-500 Future. They involve support and resistance and how support can became resistance later.

When the market cross down this last low there is nothing that can stop it in going to the next support level, the market open.

Short position open:

Just a few minutes later, exit:

After the break of the market open support, the market go up to retest this levels but fails, at this point the support became resistance and the market start pulling down.

Open position to the short side:

Next support could be at 1.268, the trade end at those levels:

Sp 500 Quick trade to Long Support

Every day, before the opening of the markets i get the daily technical approach of the nasdaq and the sp futures from top notch.

This friday with the complete report and important levels top notch was telling the following for the sp:

WATCHING THE OPEN AS BOTH APPEAR READY TO OPEN NEAR THEIR PIVOTAL PRICES. UPSIDE THE S&P SHOULD FIND SOLID SUPPORT AT ITS LONG VALUE PRICE OF 1281.00, FOLLOWED BY THE DAILY PIVOT PRICE OF 1281.50. DOWNSIDE THE S&P WILL SEEK A FIRST SUPPORT PRICE OF 1271.60, FOLLOWED BY A KEY PRICE OF 1268.90.

As this market was opening lower and getting down fast, i opened a position to the short side at 1.283:

My target was the first support level of 1.281, in a matter of 4 minutes the market was there and i leaved the trade:

Trading short the SP with Top Notch

In today morning update, Top Notch was saying the following about the SP-500 future:

"THE SEVEN WEEK LOWS ARE KEY. A BREACH OF THOSE PRICES COULD SEE A FURTHER ACCELERATION TO THE DOWNSIDE. AS OF THIS WRITING, THE S&P FELL JUST SHORT OF THAT PRICE OBJECTIVE OF 1290.50."

I opened a position to the short side as soon as i got that info from the CME Floor by an insider as Top Notch.

The 10 min chart was looking like the following:

In the second daily update from the floor, Top Notch:

"The s&p bounced to a high of 1294.00 the first time from its current low of 1290.00. A second move found a low of 1290.20. However, when a high of 1296.00 was seen, it rejected any momentum upward as that opening range held safe. This future has since maintained a trade above its downside # price of 1293.50. A rotation under that price, followed by a 1293.00 offer, could spark a move to the lows and I now suspect stops could continue the demise, triggering a move to tests of 1286.80 and 1282.30."

This was clearly stating that at least the prices will touch the 1286 in today trading session.
At 15:15 EST prices were at the predicted levels and the trade end:

Top Notch US Futures Technical Analisys

At midday central time yesterday(01/06/2011), i got the regular top notch market update from the Mr Topstep IM Service.

Regarding The SP Top Notch said:

The s&p did continue its slide after the early update. When this future found a low of 1331.50 mentioned earlier, it topped out at the 1334.20 price. The next move found new lows at the 1327.00 price. However, the bounce saw a high of 1331.50, which failed that first low of 1331.50. Very interesting. Key turn price?? When the lows were retested, stops triggered a flurry downward to its current low of 1323.20. Now this future has caught its breath and it needs to see how it reacts to that 1327.00 price. Any positive momentum will then turn the 1331.50 price, followed by an objective of 1334.20. Key to the whole day and that price is not an impossibility to be seen. Further erosion will take a ride and test the 1319.50-1320.00 area.

Market was at 1.324 when i got the update.

From here Top Notch says, if the market gets up it will go test the 1.331 level, at the downside it will test 1.319-1.320 levels.

After some consolidation market trades down so i open a short position at the spx trying to earn 4 handles:

The market continues its downtrend momentum and reach the predicted values of 1.320.

Top Notch is one of Mrtopstep contributors.

Mr Topstep traders at the CME Floor

Princetontrader Futures Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 Futures broke above the trend line and after selling off in the early portion of the session rallied to touch the 78.6% retracement line at 1346.27.  The E-Mini’s have backed off slightly in pre-market trading.  The biggest takeaway for me yesterday was that the huge pre-market move higher was tested but not rejected by the market.  We have now broken the string of lower highs that were represented by the descending trend line.

While we did not get a perfect test of the trend line yesterday we did move down to within 3 handles.  Maybe that’s enough.  I will keep the line on my chart as a reference point for a potential larger pullback.  We are now 45 handles off the 1302.25 low and 17 handles above the old trend line.  The 1358 level is now in the market’s sights. The numbers of traders who are questioning this market’s ability to move higher was palpable yesterday.  This tells me that a lot of people were caught leaning short Monday night and that there are enough stubborn shorts left to drag us higher.

However, yesterday was a very large move and it really needs to be digested so I would not be surprised if we chopped a little up here while everyone catches their breath and allows a lot of these economic data points to come in today through Friday.  My new line in the sand is 1328, that was the low Monday and Tuesday.  I would not be buying strength or selling weakness here.  Buying dips and selling rips has worked and there is no reason to believe that has changed.  This market will give us opportunities to enter, as it did yesterday in the 1333 area.  If you did not get long down there I would wait for another dip.  Patience is key here.  The minute you chase a move like this you’re going to get left holding the bag.  That’s just trading.  If you want to be short your entry was our 1347 number from yesterday’s note with a stop at new highs.  Very nice low risk entry.  Just don’t get greedy on the short side.  The uptrend is most certainly intact.

Today we have Challenger Job Cuts, ADP Survey, Construction Spending and ISM Manufacturing, .  Note: The DOE Crude Inventories will be tomorrow due to the shortened week.  Don’t forget to check out the Economic Calendar Tab here at mrtopstep.com: Mr Topstep Economic Calendar.

Support and Resistance Levels:  We are currently trading 1344.00 -.50.  Support levels are 1342, 1336, 1329 (50MA/TRENDLINE)1324, 1312, 1308, 1302.   Resistance is 1347, 1352, 1358, 1366, 1373.  Trade ‘em well and have a great day.

	ES	CL	GC
Daily Pivot	1339.50	101.86	1537.0
Daily Pivot Range	1342.00 – 1337.00	102.23 – 101.50	1537.5 – 1536.5
3 day Pivot	1338.25	101.86	1532.26
3 day Pivot Range	1341.38 – 1335.13	102.23 – 101.50	1534.3 – 1531.0

Futures Pit Technical Levels, Nasdaq trading

The markets are fairly quiet, but the erosion is still showing a face in the s&p future, while that nasdaq is hanging tough.

The nasdaq continues to show strength as this future hasn't seen a test of its daily fib level at 2343.75. This future made a pit low of 2347.00 offer, mini low of 2346.25. It has since followed with a high of 2352.75, which held its last high of 2353.50, holding its pivotal price of 2353.25 once again as resistance. Downside still looks to test levels of 2341.75, 2338.25, and settle / daily pivot objectives at 2332.50 & 2332.75 respectively. A move back above the 2353.50 price, will need a bid followed at 2357.00. That should turn this future higher and a chance at new highs.

The bonds did catch a bid to make new highs. Holding a last low of 125.23 (upside # price), led to new highs at 126.05. A low of 125.31 was seen, followed by a one tic new high at 126.06. This future still may feel the need to test that key price of 126.16 and if that happens, I can't see why the index futures would rally. However, that last high leads to a one tic rejection of an extended move higher if the 125.31 price goes offer. Would then think another test of the 125.23 price would be in the cards, which would then see these two index futures firm up.

Food Stamps Went to Record 44.199 Million in February, USDA Food Stamps Went to Record 44.199 Million in February, USDA Says By Alan Bjerga - May 2, 2011 4:18 PM CT

The number of Americans receiving food stamps rose to a record 44.199 million in February, up from 44.188 million in the previous month, the government said.Recipients of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program subsidies for food purchases jumped 12 percent from a year earlier, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today in a statement on its website.

Participation has set records every month since December 2008. Increases have slowed in recent months as unemployment levels declined.